Dinamica—a stochastic cellular automata model designed to simulate the landscape dynamics in an Amazonian colonization frontier

Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho^{, , a}, Gustavo Coutinho Cerqueira^{, b} and Cássio Lopes Pennachin^{, c}

^a Department of Cartography, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos, Belo Horizonte 6627-31270-900, Minas Gerais, Brazil ^b Remote Sensing Center, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Av. Antônio Carlos, Belo Horizonte 6627-31270-900, Minas Gerais, Brazil ^c Intelligenesis do Brasil Ltda, Av. Brasil 1438, 1505, Belo Horizonte 30140-003, Brazil

Received 2 November 2000;

revised 28 November 2001;

accepted 21 December 2001.

Available online 18 April 2002.

Abstract

, a spatially explicit simulation model of landscape dynamics has been developed. is a cellular automata model that presents multi-scale vicinity-based transitional functions, incorporation of spatial feedback approach to a stochastic multi-step simulation engine, and the application of logistic regression to calculate the spatial dynamic transition probabilities. This model was initially conceived for the simulation of Amazonian landscape dynamics, particularly the landscapes evolved in areas occupied by small farms

For testing its performance, the model was used to simulate spatial patterns of land-use and land-cover changes produced by the Amazonian colonists in clearing the forest, cultivating the land, and eventually abandoning it for vegetation succession. The study area is located in an Amazonian colonization frontier in the north of Mato Grosso state, Brazil. The model was run for two sub-areas of colonization projects, using an 8-year time span, from 1986 to 1994. The simulated maps were compared with land-use and land-cover maps, obtained from digital classification of remote sensing images, using the multiple resolution fitting procedure and a set of landscape structure measures, including fractal dimension, contagion index, and the number of patches for each type of land-use and land-cover class. The results from the validation methods for the two areas showed a good performance of the model, indicating that it can be used for replicating the spatial patterns created by landscape dynamics in Amazonian colonization regions occupied by small farms. Possible applications of Image include the evaluation of landscape fragmentation produced by different architectures of colonization projects and the prediction of a region's spatial pattern evolution according to various dynamic phases.

Author Keywords: Land-use and land-cover change; Cellular automata; Simulation model; Image ; Amazonian landscape dynamics

Article Outline

1. Introduction

2. Methods

2.1. Model structure

2.1.1. The model data

2.1.2. The calculation of the dynamic variables

2.1.3. The calculation of the transition rates and quantities

2.1.4. The calculation of the spatial transition probabilities

2.1.5. The transitional functions

2.1.6. The Expander function

2.1.7. The Patcher function

2.1.8. The software

2.2. Test performance

2.2.1. The test site and its land change conceptual model

2.2.2. The time span for running the model

2.2.3. The input maps

2.3. Model calibration

3. Results and discussion

4. Conclusions

Acknowledgements

References

Fig. 1. Flowchart of .